Recession fears and political uncertainty will lead to North American marketers adopting cautious marketing budgets for 2025, according to a survey from the World Federation of Advertisers and media research firm Ebiquity. 

Only 30% of North American marketers anticipate upping spend for next year, the lowest percentage of any region, while 24 prercent said they plan to decrease media spend, the highest among all regions. The survey of 134 global brand leaders, representing $66 billion in media spending and including 24 of the top 50 advertisers, found that overall, 49% plan to increase media spending in 2025.

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“The rise of recessionary indicators in the U.S., fears the American consumer will roll over, and uncertainty created by the first year of a new administration is leading to caution in North America,” said Ebiquity CEO Nick Waters. “Conversely, it is encouraging to see an upturn in European sentiment following a difficult few years.”

The survey was conducted before the U.S. presidential election and does not reflect Donald Trump’s victory, but rather the broader uncertainty surrounding an administration change. 

Globally, traditional media is set to take the biggest hit, with print, linear TV and radio showing the largest decreases in spend next year. But more than half of marketers said they planned to maintain current spending levels on radio, while 34% of respondents said they planned to increase out-of-home spend in 2025.

CTV (78% increase) and retail media (75%) are poised for the largest growth among those serveyed, with influencer marketing and digital video not far behind.

Marketers’ focus on these channels, where business outcomes and direct sales are more easily measurable, illustrates the ongoing trend of prioritizing performance metrics over traditional brand-building measures. In streaming TV, for example, this has led to a growing emphasis on shoppable ads and branded content, while platforms such as Amazon Prime Video have made using retail data for TV buying a key proposition to connect TV campaigns with active shoppers.

Overall, 42% of respondents said they would increase their share of performance advertising in 2025, up from 21% in last year’s surveu and 28% the year prior. That’s not to say brand-building media held larger shares in the past two years—advertisers aimed to maintain a balance between brand and performance media in both 2024 and 2023. Next year, 24% of marketers said they will increase spending in brand media compared to 35% in last year’s survey and 21% the year prior.

“The emphasis of performance marketing over branding indicates a move to short-termism and a need for results now, with the flow of funds into retail media contributing strongly to this trend,” Waters said. 

The impact of AI, climate change and other issues

Marketers were mixed on the impact AI would have on the media marketplace. While 38% described a non-disruptive transition to using AI for efficiency in media buying and planning, 34% anticipate significant changes or a complete transformation. Conversely, 28% predict little to no impact.

“The next wave of transformation may come from AI—an area from which the impact can still only be loosely gauged,” said Stephan Loerke, CEO of WFA, in a statement. “We need to prepare for this transformation, but not before implementing the measurement frameworks we need for today, not least to ensure we can measure across an increasingly fragmented ecosystem.”

Additionally, transparency and sustainability were identified as top issues in media. The majority of respondents said sustainability of media campaigns would grow as an area of focus next year. And less than half agreed that media had become more transparent with advertisers from 2023 to 2024.

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