U.S. ad spending is expected to grow 7.2% to $381 billion in 2024, excluding political ad spending, according to industry analyst Brian Wieser of consultancy Madison and Wall. That is an increase from Wieser’s prior predictions that the U.S. ad market would grow 6.3% during the year. Including political spending, U.S. advertising is expected to grow 10.5% to $397 billion.

The more optimistic forecast comes after stronger-than-expected 9.6% growth during the second quarter, excluding political spending, according to Wieser, who had previously estimated 6.7% growth. This marks three consecutive quarters of growth near 10%.

Wieser, however, predicts the pace of growth will decelerate in the second half of 2024 despite a healthy economy, with segment-specific factors such as unsustainable levels of growth in digital, the dissolution of the Global Alliance for Responsible Media and continued declines in TV viewership playing a role.

Also read: How Elon Musk took down GARM

Digital spend will grow less after growing a lot

Ad spend in digital platforms such as retail media, search and social media made up 67% of U.S. ad revenue in the second quarter, according to Wieser. But growth rates, which have ranged from 14% to nearly 19% over the past four quarters compared to their year-prior period, won’t be sustainable, he said.

Excluding political advertising, Wieser anticipated high single-digit growth in the last two quarters of the year due to the expectation that Chinese-based exporters such as Temu and Shein will reduce spend, as well as major U.S. manufacturers steadying their rates of investment in retail media. Retail media has been one of the fastest-growing digital channels in recent years and is on track to surpass $50 billion in ad revenue in the U.S. this year.

Read more: Retail media networks survive Google cookie reversal

Wieser also notes that ad revenue for “open web” platforms such as Yahoo and MSN will likely be harmed by the discontinuation of GARM, the global organization that advised major advertisers on brand safety standards and was shuttered in light of an antitrust lawsuit from X. 

“There will be limits to marketer interest given challenges identifying consumers, concerns around spammy/made-for-advertising content and concerns around brand safety,” Wieser wrote in his forecast. “In lieu of a global standard-setter such as the WFA’s GARM … spending on these sorts of media owners will probably be further deprioritized because of the additional costs involved in ensuring satisfactory standards for inventory quality and brand safety.”

TV continues to struggle in face of persistent declines

Ad spend in TV, including national and local linear as well as CTV and streaming, will decline 2.1% in 2024, excluding political advertising, Madison and Wall predicts. This is offset slightly by spending on Olympics coverage hosted by NBCUniversal, leading to a predicted 3.7% increase in TV ad revenue during the third quarter. However, the Olympics boost may lead to a larger decline in 2025 by comparison—Wieser predicts TV ad spending to decline 4.1% next year.

CTV and streaming’s share of ad revenue will grow to 30% in 2024 from 26% in 2023, with growth for that portion of the TV segment alone anticipated to be 22%, per Wieser. 

Local TV, though, will receive a significant boost from political advertising this year. Local TV will grow 26.9% in 2024, with political spend representing 28% of all local TV advertising during the year compared to 4.2% during 2023.

All other media outside of digital and TV, including out-of-home, audio and publishing, account for 16% of U.S. ad spend, according to Wieser.