If ad prices are any indication of Madison Avenue's confidence in TV shows, this season's new programs are facing some doubts.

For the first time in four years, no freshman shows rank among the 10 costliest programs for advertisers, according to Ad Age's annual pricing survey.

Here's what marketers are sure of: football and tears.

The three most expensive broadcast programs for 30 seconds of ad time continue to be NFL games. And there's no sign of that changing, despite the creep of politics and safety concerns into the league.

What's also clear is that advertisers remain comfortable paying more for less. On average, a 30-second commercial in broadcast prime time for the 2017-18 season costs $134,009, up 6% from $126,333 last season.

Prime-time viewership, meanwhile, keeps falling. The Big Four broadcasters averaged a cumulative 8.1 rating in the advertiser-coveted 18-to-49 demo last season, down 8% from the season prior and only the latest in a series of declines. But supply and demand continues to work in networks' favor, at least in terms of sticker price. If marketers want to put video ads in front of big audiences all at once, TV is still the easiest way to do it.

Leader of the pack

The most expensive program in broadcast this season is NBC's "Sunday Night Football," with an average price for 30 seconds of ad time hovering just under $700,000, up 4% from $673,644 last season. And CBS and NBC broadcasts of "Thursday Night Football" are tied for No. 2, averaging about $550,000 for 30 seconds.

It's worth noting that Fox's late-national NFL games, which are not technically in prime time, averaged nearly $716,000 for a 30-second spot. On cable, ESPN's "Monday Night Football" commanded about $425,000 for commercial time.

Despite any concerns regarding an oversaturation of NFL throughout the week and some wobbling in the ratings, football still regularly draws some of the biggest live audiences, an increasingly scarce commodity on TV.

That dynamic is also helping NBC's tear-jerker drama "This Is Us" command the highest price for a scripted series on broadcast. On average, advertisers paid $394,428 for a 30-second spot in the series, up 45% from last season.

"This Is Us" returned for its sophomore season last week and promptly delivered a series high in the 18-to-49 demo. The episode averaged 12.6 million viewers and a 3.8 rating in the demo, up 12% from the spring finale.

The surge in the cost of its ads moved "This Is Us" up two spots on the list to No. 4, bumping Fox's "Empire," last year's most expensive scripted show on network TV. The hip-hop drama is now No. 5, averaging $305,369. It's also one of the biggest decliners of the season, plunging 30% from $437,100 last year.

Other shows with the dubious distinction of big drops include Fox's "Gotham," whose ad prices tanked 32% to $88,796, and "Lethal Weapon," down 23% to $132,331. On NBC, ad prices fell 21% for "The Blacklist" and 33% for "Blindspot." And CBS's "Kevin Can Wait" saw a 25% drop-off to $120,531.

Both "The Blacklist" and "Blindspot" are former top 10 most-expensive shows, proving that just because advertisers are willing to pay a premium one year doesn't mean they'll keep it up. "Blindspot" was the most expensive new show of the 2015-16 season. This year the drama has been relegated to an out-of-the way slot on Friday nights, where shows often go to die.

Ad Age's survey is assembled using information from as many as eight media-buying agencies. (See our 2016 pricing chart here.) The resulting prices should be viewed as directional indicators and not the actual price that every advertiser paid for a 30-second spot. The numbers are based on agency estimates that can vary depending on the amount of inventory purchased from a network, the inclusion of any nontraditional advertising such as product placements, and the relationship that an advertiser and media-buying agency has with a network. Most TV advertising is typically purchased as part of larger negotiations, not on a one-off basis.

These estimates also reflect the prices that advertisers and networks agreed on in this year's upfront marketplace. Prices have likely changed for those buying spots closer to the air date in the so-called "scatter" market that follows.

In addition to "Monday Night Football," several cable programs rival those on broadcast, such as AMC's "The Walking Dead." But it is difficult to compare many cable ad packages to those of broadcast because cable buys often include multiple airings and repeats of a show.

Veterans win

Overall, the most expensive programs on broadcast TV look a whole lot like they did last year. All 10 of this year's costliest programs appeared on our list last season (though in a slightly different order).

Perhaps that's a reflection of this season's freshman series, or else the fact that advertisers have gotten burned in the past paying hefty price tags on unproven content.

In fact, the most expensive new show isn't really new at all. NBC's reboot of "Will & Grace" cost upfront buyers an average of $211,856 for 30 seconds. In its previous life, the sitcom was a favorite among advertisers. In 2003, "Will & Grace" averaged $414,500 for a 30-second spot, coming in at No. 2 on Ad Age's list for the season. (More on that here).

Another expensive newbie, if you can call it that, is ABC's revival of "American Idol." The reality singing competition averaged just under $200,000 for 30 seconds of commercial time this season. In 2006, the singing competition snagged nearly $600,000 per 30-second spot. By its final season on Fox in 2016, prices for "Idol" inventory had fallen below $200,000. (More on that here).

"Idol" has been usurped by NBC's own reality singing competition, "The Voice," with the Monday night performance show coming in seventh on our list at $259,180 and the Tuesday night results show taking ninth place at $229,717, both up by double-digit percentages.

CBS newcomer "Young Sheldon," a spin-off of "The Big Bang Theory," also fares well, averaging $180,393 for a 30-second spot. Of course, this too is a familiar property, with narration by Jim Parsons, who plays Sheldon Cooper in the original. "Young Sheldon" debuted last week to 17.2 million viewers and pulled a 3.8 rating in the 18-to-49 demo, making it the biggest comedy premiere in four years. It won't air again until November, but CBS has already announced it is giving the series a full-season order.

"The Big Bang Theory," for its part, fell one spot to No. 6 on the chart, averaging $285,908, relatively flat with last year. And ABC's "Modern Family" stays steady at No. 7, averaging $239,782, a 7% increase.

ABC's venerable "Grey's Anatomy" once again rounds out the top 10, averaging $213,576 for 30 seconds of commercial time. Last year, the Shonda Rhimes medical drama returned to the top 10 for the first time since 2010. It's by far the oldest show in the top quadrant, now in its 14th season.

Still, "Grey's" is nowhere close to the $400,000-plus that it commanded from advertisers in the 2007-08 season, when it was the most expensive program on TV.

NBC claims five of the top 10 most expensive shows in broadcast prime time.

Among returning broadcast shows, 23 have seen the cost for ad time increase, while another 23 have seen decreases and 16 have remained relatively steady.