Democrats have a financial edge in political ad spending in 2024. The only question is how big the advantage will be in presidential, Senate and House races—where control of Congress is at stake.

One of the challenges for down-ballot candidates is heightened interest in the presidential race. Since replacing President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee, the amount of money pouring into Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign is staggering. Harris will also likely get the $90 million collected by the Biden-Harris campaign.  

These developments make it more difficult for candidates in other races to get their message to voters. The way to break through the noise, some strategists think, is to focus on local or statewide issues.

Despite Republican primary advertising, Democrats have a $200 million spending lead across all races—including a $55 million lead in the presidential race—since Jan 1. Democratic spending across broadcast TV, cable TV, radio, Spanish language TV, satellite, CTV, Google and Facebook is approaching $2 billion. 

Democrats have so far spent about $450 million in the presidential race—with $40 million by Harris since replacing Biden—including all bookings through Nov. 5. The largest spender is FF PAC, which has booked more than $200 million in ad time with almost $150 million coming after Labor Day. Between $21 million and $22 million each will be spent in Atlanta, Phoenix, Philadelphia and Detroit with Pittsburgh receiving $12 million.

Harris has little spending booked after this week’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago but that will change quickly, especially during the critical post-Labor Day period.  

FF has spent handsomely on broadcast advertising in 2024 according to the MediaRadar/CMAG Competitive Navigator. Nearly 75% is going to local broadcast—a huge share in today’s political marketing environment. It has also consistently spent on CTV.

However, FF is not the largest spender for Democrats. That distinction belongs to the Senate Majority Fund/WinSenate PAC—Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s PAC—with spending commitments of $270 million. It makes sense for a Senate-focused advertiser to be spending big, given the number of key Senate races and with Democrats defending more seats than Republicans. 

WinSenate has spent the largest amount—more than $70 million—supporting incumbent Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown. Brown is showing a 5-point polling lead, according to Real Clear Politics (RCP), over Republican businessman Bernie Moreno and running ahead of VP Harris in Ohio. Brown is also the biggest spender among Democratic Senate candidates with more than $40 million. Democrats have heavily outspent Republicans in U.S. Senate races, $700 million to $530 million.

WinSenate is also spending big in Pennsylvania ($55 million), Nevada ($41 million), Montana ($32 million), Arizona ($25 million), Michigan ($25 million) and Wisconsin ($20 million). Montana appears to be the only place where an incumbent Democrat is running behind. John Tester is down by 4.4 points to GOP newcomer Tim Sheehy in the RCP political poll average. Donald Trump beat Joe Biden by more than 16 points in 2020 so Sheehy has to convince a lot of historic Trump voters to not split their ballots in November.

Among House candidates, Democrats have a spending lead but not as large as for Senate races. Democrats have committed $450 million compared with $410 million for Republicans.

The lead spender is Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ House Majority PAC, which has spent an estimated $200 million—nearly all of it running after Labor Day. You may remember that the narrow Republican majority in the House resulted partially from wins in very blue California and New York. That’s why Jeffries’ PAC is spending the most money in California swing districts. Democrats will also try to hold the seat of incumbent Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, who declined to seek reelection and then failed to advance in the nonpartisan Senate primary won by Adam Schiff and Steve Garvey.

The PAC has so far spent $35 million in California, with Los Angeles getting the majority. New York City is second with approximately $25 million in spending. Expect these numbers to soar after Labor Day. 

One of the biggest and most publicized participants in Democratic House primaries this year is the United Democracy Project—the PAC run by AIPAC, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a pro-Israel lobbying group.

UDP knocked off New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman and Missouri Rep. Cori Bush, two members of The Squad, an informal left-wing group of nine Democratic Representatives. It spent the most to defeat Bowman given the higher cost of New York media. UDP dominated video screens across the market, overwhelming supporters of Bowman, who lost to George Latimer.

St. Louis was second on the UDP spend list with $7 million, nearly half of the $15 million total. The same playbook was used to unseat on Rep. Bush—accusing her of promoting her own agenda and voting against President Biden on key legislation that would have created jobs. Of course, UDP was targeting certain Squad members for their anti-Israel stance on the Gaza War; Bowman and Bush were the only House incumbents to lose.

It’s not a big year for Gubernatorial elections but there are two of note: North Carolina and New Hampshire. North Carolina Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, briefly considered to be Harris’ running mate, is term-limited. New Hampshire Republican Gov. Chris Sununu surprised everyone by deciding to not run again.

North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein, a Democratic, leads all advertisers, spending nearly $35 million. That is well above his opponent, Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who hasn’t yet spent $5 million.  

The New Hampshire primary is held on Sept. 10. The most prominent figures in the race are former Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte and Democratic Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig. The primary has brought $7 million in spending thus far.

Coming soon: a look at Republican political ad spending.