Why Super Bowl commercial pricing may have peaked

Even though Super Bowl LVIII hit an all-time ratings high, pricing for commercials in the 2025 Big Game, which will air on Fox, isn’t expected to jump from the $7 million range, according to multiple media buyers. After the 2024 game drew 123.4 million viewers across Paramount’s and Univision’s channels (including a record 120 million on CBS alone), some buyers feared that the ratings record would result in a price hike for advertising in next year’s game. Check out the latest Ad Age events and award programs Still, Fox’s price tag on a 30-second unit in 2025’s Super Bowl LIX is in the range of $7 million, on par with the last three Big Games, according to six sources familiar with dealmaking. As tends to be the case historically, the buyers each said the price can vary based on the client and overall commitment with Fox, with some sources putting deals in the mid $7 millions and at least two sources citing costs in the mid-to-high $6 millions. And advertisers that buy inventory outside of larger upfront commitments may have to shell out even more. In addition, as has become common practice in Big Game bartering, Fox will require advertisers to commit at least the same price to its other sports franchises or regular season NFL games. Fox declined to comment on its Super Bowl negotiations. Super Bowl pricing and viewership, 1967-2025 Recent Super Bowl pricing growth has slowed despite climbing ratings Source: Ad Age, Nielsen and Vivvix (formerly Kantar Media) The $7 million price tag seems to be the going rate for Super Bowl ads for at least several years. CBS’s rates for February’s Super Bowl were also said to be in the range of $7 million, as were ad units in the 2023 Big Game on Fox. The 2022 game on NBC cost around $6.5 million, with some selling for $7 million. The first Super Bowl, which aired in January 1967, cost advertisers $40,000 for a 30-second commercial. By 1976 the price tripled, garnering $125,000 when it aired on CBS. Super Bowl ads didn’t hit the $1 million mark until 1995 when the Big Game aired on ABC, but pricing quickly continued to climb from there, hitting over $2 million five years later in 2000. Since the early 2000s, the gap between Super Bowl ads and the price to air in broadcast’s biggest primetime shows has become more pronounced. In 2004, for example, it cost advertisers $2.3 million to advertise in the game on CBS that year, compared with over $650,000 for a 30-second spot in TV’s most expensive show at the time, “American Idol.” In 2024, with pricing for the Super Bowl at $7 million, the most expensive show in broadcast, “Sunday Night Football,” cost advertisers $882,000 on average. Check out our Super Bowl ad archive Reductions in Super Bowl ad prices compared to the previous year’s rates are a rare occurrence. While year-over-year pricing may not always grow, each network has always grown pricing compared to its prior year hosting the Big Game. Since the 2010s, pricing has grown consistently with only a few exceptions—NBC’s 2018 Big Game cost advertisers $5.05 million, the same amount as the previous year’s game on Fox during a multi-year downward ratings trend, and CBS’s 2021 Super Bowl also saw pricing flat with the year prior, likely a result of pandemic market conditions. The biggest year-over-year price increase came in 2022, when the game went from costing advertisers $5.6 million to $6.5 million. This will mark the longest period in Super Bowl history with ad pricing remaining consistent. But given LVIII’s all-time viewership high, Fox’s flat to modestly increased pricing may be an indicator of the broader TV ad market rather than changes in demand for Super Bowl ad inventory. ‘Not even the Super Bowl is immune’ Although the Super Bowl has become the crown jewel of TV upfront sales, the buyers said that it isn’t immune from broader market trends. The Big Game may be reaching its pricing peak as media companies respond to growing competition in the upfront market by rolling back pricing, particularly in streaming, in exchange for larger commitment volumes. “There is a value ceiling for the most expensive unit cost we’re ever going to pay [for the Super Bowl]—there’s only so much higher it could reasonably go,” said one media buyer, who spoke on condition of anonymity given ongoing negotiations. A second media buyer said that even the Super Bowl has its “that’s too much” limit, and that the Big Game isn’t immune from the trends of the current upfront market. Media companies are making concessions on pricing in exchange for larger commitment volumes, the buyer said, as advertisers prioritize commitments with media companies possessing the largest portfolios and must-buy assets, a short list with the Super Bowl at the top. “Not even the Super Bowl is immune to a down market—[Fox] initially wanted higher, but saw the writing on the wall,” said a third media buyer, who added that although next year’s pricing is flat with past years’, “I also wouldn’t paint the current price as bargain basement either.” A fourth buyer said that advertisers are also having to weigh growing creative costs for advertising in the Super Bowl outside of just the unit price. In recent years, the rollout of a brand’s Big Game ad, as well as surrounding merchandise and influencer and celebrity campaigns, have become more elaborate and costly. Also read: Inside CeraVe’s Super Bowl influencer campaign Super Bowl campaigns have split into either high-production blockbusters or “scrappy counter-programming” with no in-between, said Bryan Smith, chief strategy officer at agency 72andSunny, adding that the latter is harder to pull off as more brands attempt to “hack the Super Bowl.” Smith said Super Bowl viewers want “money you can see on the screen. If you get it right, the ROI is fabulous not just for the raw views and social buzz, but also because they're the ads that become part of the collective consciousness.” “It’s the middle of the road stuff that no one remembers,” said Smith. “The well-made, well-acted, well-messaged ads that would totally work in a high-frequency media plan … get a collective shrug in the [Super Bowl].” Also read: Super Bowl 2024 ad review As such, the Super Bowl has become a risky buy for some advertisers, according to the fourth buyer, adding that it can be the best value buy for a marketer that nails the creative or it can be the worst value buy if the campaign doesn’t resonate with audiences. The buyer said that as brands evaluate whether the Super Bowl gamble is worth it, the addition of more special event games are becoming attractive lower-priced alternatives for advertisers. Amazon Prime Video’s Black Friday NFL game, for example, is presented as a matchup in which ads are must-see in order to seize on holiday deals. Last year, the game cost advertisers on average $600,000 for 30 seconds of ad time. To be sure, Fox’s amenability in Super Bowl pricing doesn’t mean it isn’t being aggressive in pitching next year’s Big Game—a fifth buyer said Super Bowl LIX is well-sold, with Fox anticipating selling out the majority of its inventory by early September, a similar timeline to the last time Fox broadcast the game.

Why Super Bowl commercial pricing may have peaked

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