5 TV upfront predictions from media buyers

The 2023 upfront was defined by the convergence of numerous hardships: economic uncertainty, the Hollywood strikes and continued questions about growth in streaming. Over the summer months, buyers described a longer-than-usual slog of negotiations and pricing rollbacks in the range of 5% across the TV market. Bookmark our 2024 upfront and NewFronts calendar While some are optimistic about a rebound in this year’s TV spend, many see similar trends of declines heading into a month of celebrity- and cocktail-filled presentations during the upfront and NewFronts weeks. Along with predictions around continued declines in spending on linear TV inventory, buyers foresee increased adoption of addressable advertising, lower pricing in streaming and new opportunities to further meld the worlds of TV, streaming and digital media. Check out the latest Ad Age events and award programs As the 2024 upfront schmooze-a-thon approaches, Ad Age asked five media buyers their predictions for this year’s market and what clients are looking for ahead of negotiations. Responses have been edited for clarity and length. Dani Benowitz, U.S. and global president, Magna: This year’s upfront will see a continuing shift of dollars out of linear into alternative video choices, especially streaming and CTV. There is an abundance of quality content with ad-supported streaming, as well as available audiences within FAST channels. Clients are looking for ways to optimize their upfront spend while still having the flexibility they need to make their dollars work hardest for them. This can include the ability to move around within a partner’s portfolio without penalty and make changes as close to the campaign start as possible. Geoff Calabrese, chief investment officer, Omnicom Media Group North America: Early expectation is that dollars will be highly concentrated in sports, CTV and data-driven linear. We would expect massive declines to continue across traditional linear entertainment. This would lead to a flat or even down market requiring increased flexibility and transparency for those who want to win. Hugh Scallon, VP, head of video activation, VaynerMedia: There is still enough socio-economic and geopolitical uncertainty in the air—and the unknown future of U.S. interest rates—which should keep marketer exuberance in check. We see these forces making for a net conservative market. It’s where ‘flat is the new up’ and inflation remains in check as video fragmentation makes for a more complex solution set. Attention and consumption are surging on social media platforms; however, the entire industry is fixated on linear TV reach extension. We see it as a myopic race to the bottom to solve for maximizing net unduplicated reach between TV and CTV. What’s missing is the interoperability and optionality of connecting the dots to platforms and culture in social media video. TV and streaming companies need to better package together their social sales options alongside their linear and non-linear assets. With measurement support, this would create demand unlocks to help brands and agencies find new competitive advantages with both target audiences and cross-screen video content. Check out the latest Ad Age events and award programs Dave Sederbaum, executive VP, head of video investment, Dentsu Media U.S.: On the most macro level, the coming upfront market is poised to be similar to last year in terms of total volume. I optimistically see some growth potential, but on a limited basis and not in terms of a massive over-correction to the softness that we saw last year. The driving force behind that forecast is predominantly lingering economic questions. The massive growth in available streaming impressions will drive investment up and prices down. The question of what the right amount of linear is remains, but it will most definitely be lower than in years past. The focus of that investment should be centered around specific audiences and outcomes. While the upfront market has never been only about price, the reality is that there are simply so many opportunities in the ecosystem of today that partners need to avoid the trap of pricing themselves out of consideration before the conversation begins. Matt Sweeney, chief investment officer, GroupM U.S.: As we approach the upfront, we can expect to see continued transformation and more upside for clients. It’s critically important for advertisers to engage audiences and deliver attributable business outcomes in a way that combines brand and performance advertising. Many are getting to work on interoperable solutions and integrations, but we need to get to a place where there is extensive, industrywide interoperability so it’s easier for brands to seamlessly buy advertising.

5 TV upfront predictions from media buyers

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