The segment closed out with Silver's thoughts about some surprises that might be in store on Election Day: "Right now we're looking at a lot of traditionally red states like Texas and Arizona -- those states are actually closer than Pennsylvania or Colorado right now. That's what happens when you're down by 7 points. It kind of swings pretty uniformly. And believe it or not, Trump is underperforming among the traditional GOP suburban base. So he gets some of them -- but if you only get 80% of Republican voters in a country where you should get 92%, then that means you can lose a state like Arizona, for example."
Simon Dumenco, aka Media Guy, is an Ad Age editor-at-large. You can follow him on Twitter @simondumenco.