Political ad spending—swing state spending climbs in weeks before Election Day

With fewer than 30 days to Election Day, the outcome is still too close to call. However, it’s a great time to be in the media business as political ad spending has surpassed $6 billion, according to MediaRadar and AdImpact. Money is pouring into all forms of media but especially video. The longtime darling of political advertisers is again dominating spending with nearly $5.8 billion spent on linear TV (broadcast, cable) and CTV (streaming). Nearly $200 million has been spent on national TV networks in the presidential race, most in sports programming whose large audiences are coveted. Swing states—where races are so close that get-out-the-vote efforts might prove more important than ad spending—will decide the presidential race. Republicans, who typically criticize early voting, are now all in since it has proved critical to winning. It’s also cheaper if voters no longer need to be reached with expensive messaging in the final days of the contest. A-List & Creativity Awards Enter for a chance to be recognized as the best in advertising Submit your entry here Vice President Kamala Harris and Democrats still have a strong cash edge over former President Donald Trump and Republicans. Trump raised $160 million in September and entered October with nearly $300 million on hand. The Harris campaign has not released its September numbers but raised four times as much money as Trump in August—$55 million alone in a series of West Coast fundraisers. Democratic advertisers outspent Republican advertisers in the presidential race by more than $300 million since April 1. FF PAC (the Democratic super PAC) and the Harris campaign are the two leading presidential advertisers. The vice-president’s campaign has spent or booked more than $350 million while FF PAC’s total is just over $370 million. The Trump campaign ($230 million) and the Make America Great Again super PAC ($230 million) lead on the Republican side. It’s no surprise that most Democratic dollars are being spent in Pennsylvania ($225 million), Michigan ($146 million) and Georgia ($110 million). Republicans have the same spending priority, with $200 million in Pennsylvania, $108 million in Michigan and $108 million in Georgia. Both campaigns continue to target Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina. Democrats are spending about $6 million in Omaha and the electoral vote coming out of Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. Nebraska awards two electoral votes to the winner of the state and one for each of the three Congressional districts. (Republicans failed in September to make Nebraska a winner-take-all-state, which would have benefited Trump.) In the battle for control of the U.S. Senate, Democrats are defending more seats and seeking to reelect incumbents in states that are red or trending that way. The Senate is now controlled by Democrats, 51-49, with the help of independents Bernie Sanders, Angus King and Kirsten Sinema. With the certain loss of the West Virginia seat held by Joe Manchin to Republican Gov. Jim Justice, Republicans need to pick up just one additional seat to take control. The surest way to do that seemed to be ousting Democrats in either Montana (Sen. John Tester) or Ohio (Sen. Sherrod Brown.) However, the campaign has provided a few surprises for both sides. Republicans are now looking at strong Democratic challengers in Texas and Nebraska. The Texas seat has been reclassified from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican,” with Sen. Ted Cruz in as close a race as in 2018. Sen. Deb Fischer is facing stubborn opposition from independent Dan Osborn in Nebraska—with super PACs now spending about $20 million in the race. Democrats are also facing unexpected challenges. The Cook Political Report now calls the Wisconsin Senate a toss-up as incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s early lead over Republican Eric Hovde has disappeared. In Montana, Tester is polling behind Republican challenger Tim Sheehy. In Ohio, some polls show Republican Bernie Moreno gaining on Brown. With both states solidly behind Donald Trump, the incumbents will need ticket splitters to stay in office. Tester is employing a strategy to get those ticket splitters to vote for him. NextGen Marketing Summit Join us for a crash course on Gen Z, DTC marketing and the creator economy Register today In Arizona and Nevada, respectively, Rep. Ruben Gallego and Sen. Jacky Rosen seem on a solid path to victory for Democrats. However, Pennsylvania and Michigan present challenges. Both states hold important roles in the Blue Wall that Democrats need to retain the White House. Republicans Mike Rogers in Michigan and Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania have been stubborn challengers to Rep. Elissa Slotkin in Michigan (in a race for an open seat) and Sen. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania—where political ad spending will surpass $300 million—is crucial to a Harris victory. Democrats are presently being outspent by about $30 million. Keystone Renewal ($60 million) and Senate Leadership Fund (approximately $45 million) lead the Republican spending while WinSenate ($55 million) and the DSCC ($11 million) lead Democratic super PAC efforts. Casey has spent nearly $40 million while Dave McCormick has spent about half as much. A poll taken from October 5-7 by Research Co. shows Casey with a 2-point advantage. Michigan wasn’t considered difficult for Democrats, but Republicans might make it harder for Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow. Former Rep. Mike Rogers is putting up a spirited race, forcing Democrats to focus resources here. Overall spending stands at $150 million with Republicans holding an approximately $5 million spending advantage. Unlike most races where super PACs spend the most, Slotkin is the top Democratic spender with nearly $20 million. The tallies since April 1 in other Senate races: Ohio: $325 million. Republican challenger Bernie Moreno, $178 million; Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, $147 million. Montana: $213 million. Democratic Sen Jon Tester, $111 million; Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, $102 million. Wisconsin: $143 million. Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, $73 million; Republican challenger Eric Hovde, $70 million. Nevada: $119 million. Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen, $78 million; Republican challenger Sam Brown, $41 million. Arizona: $109 million. Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, $81 million; Republican challenger Kari Lake, $28 million. Maryland: $86 million. Democrat Angela Alsobrooks, the Prince George’s County executive, $47 million; former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan, $39 million. Texas: $78 million. Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, $41 million; Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, $37 million. Next column: a look at U.S. House and governors’ races.

Political ad spending—swing state spending climbs in weeks before Election Day

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