How much is a U.S. Senate seat worth? That depends

As we collectively stumble toward the finish line of the 2019-2020 election cycle, Ad Age Campaign Ad Scorecard—an ongoing project led by Ad Age Datacenter Director of Data Management Kevin Brown in partnership with Kantar/CMAG—has some hard-won insights to share based on a lot of nitty-gritty math. We’ve been keeping track of various campaigns’ TV and radio ad spending, as well as digital ad spending across Facebook and Google properties (where available, as self-reported by those platforms) since Jan. 1, 2019, and the numbers in the charts you see on these pages include advance TV and radio bookings through Election Day. Here’s what you need to know: Democratic Party presidential ad spend remains weirdly distorted for two reasons When it comes to advertising outlay this election cycle, at first glance it seems that Democrats have way outspent Republicans in pursuit of the White House: $1.89 billion vs. $674 million, as tracked by Ad Age Datacenter. But the Democratic total is almost absurdly distorted by the presence, during primary season, of two free-spending billionaires: Mike Bloomberg and Tom Steyer (remember them?), who together burned through $815 million in tracked ad buys. And of course there was a wide field of other high-profile wannabes who ultimately dropped out after each spending typically tens of millions of dollars on advertising in pursuit of the Democratic Party presidential nomination that Joe Biden ultimately clinched. Trump trails Biden in tracked ad spending That said, President Donald Trump is more than $100 million behind Biden in tracked ad spending. That’s to be expected given that, as the incumbent, Trump got to sit on his campaign cash while Biden fended off competitors from his own party during primary season. Bloomberg still beats Biden in ad spending As of this writing, Biden, with $537 million in tracked ad spending, is still, remarkably, behind Bloomberg’s total of $593 million. Four PACs have bigfooted the U.S. Senate race Of the $1.6 billion in tracked advertising spent in pursuit of, or to hold on to, U.S. Senate seats, just four PACs together spent 29% of the total. The Republicans’ Senate Leadership Fund and National Republican Senatorial Committee, with a combined $239 million, are closely followed by the Democrats’ two big funds, Senate Majority PAC and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which together have dropped $237 million so far. PACs have had even more outsize influence on House races When it comes to political ad spending in pursuit of, or in defense of, U.S. House of Representatives seats, four giant PACs spent 39% of the $876 million tracked by Ad Age Datacenter. House Majority PAC and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee are holding at $180 million combined. The two big Republican PACs, Congressional Leadership Fund and National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee, have placed $162 million in media buys. Louisiana has seen the biggest-bucks gubernatorial race Some gubernatorial races are over; Louisiana, where Democrat John Bel Edwards won in 2019, accounts for $53 million in tracked ad spending. Elections in Montana, North Carolina, Kentucky (won by Democrat Andy Beshear in 2019) and Missouri all show spending at or close to $30 million. No other gubernatorial race had more than $12 million in total spending this cycle. North Carolina has seen the biggest political ad blitz in the nation When it comes to state-by-state political ad spending, North Carolina beats Florida, $399 million to $393 million, per Datacenter’s tracking. Keep in mind that the Tar Heel State’s population is a lot less than the Sunshine State’s (10.5 million vs. 21.5 million), which makes the barrage of advertising targeted at North Carolinians even more insane on a per-capita basis. Buy buy buy How much is a U.S. Senate seat worth? That depends. In North Carolina, U.S. Senate incumbent Republican Tom Tillis is running against Democratic nominee Cal Cunningham, and the total tracked ad spending for this seat (including during primary season) is hovering around $200 million, putting this race neck-and-neck with Iowa’s $195 million battle—which pits incumbent Republican Joni Ernst against Democratic nominee Theresa Greenfield—in the meta-race for the Most Spendy U.S. Senate Race Ever “honors.” Meanwhile, in Arizona, what a bargain! Democrat Mark Kelly has burned through a mere $53 million in tracked ad spending to attempt to unseat Republican incumbent U.S. Senator Martha McSally ($26 million). Battle for the U.S. With a few weeks to go, ad spending by office. Dollars in millions. Media spending Office Democrats Republicans Other Total President $1,886 $674 $2 $2,562 U.S. Senate 877 757 7 1,642 U.S. House 483 388 4 876 Governor 98 104 1 203 Total $3,345 $1,923 $14 $5,282 Source: Media spending from Kantar/CMAG. Spending for ads booked from Jan. 1, 2019 (including primaries) through Election Day as of Oct. 14, 2020. Figures include TV and radio. Presidential and Senate campaigns include some social media spending. Political media spending by state Dollars in millions. Media spending State Democrats Republicans Other Total North Carolina $227 $170 $2 $399 Florida 252 141 0 393 Iowa 214 115 1 329 Arizona 181 117 1 299 Pennsylvania 181 96 0 277 Michigan 180 89 0 270 Georgia 103 146 0 249 Texas 157 83 1 240 California 198 37 0 235 South Carolina 120 61 0 181 Other 1,119 711 9 1,840 Total by state 2,934 1,765 14 4,712 U.S. 411 159 0 570 Total $3,345 $1,923 $14 $5,282 Source: Media spending from Kantar/CMAG. Spending for ads booked from Jan. 1, 2019 (including primaries) through Election Day as of Oct. 14, 2020. Figures include TV and radio. Social media, national network TV and cable spending are included in the U.S. figures. Figures include only spending related to presidential, U.S. Senate, U.S. House and gubernatorial elections for candidates and PACs. Presidential race media spending since Bernie Sanders dropped out Including PACs and advocacy groups. Dollars in millions. Party / sponsor Media spending Democrats Joe Biden $499 FF PAC 86 Priorities USA Action 65 AB PAC 36 Independence USA PAC 26 The Lincoln Project 16 Other 58 Total Democrats 786 Republicans Donald Trump 367 America First Action 87 Preserve America PAC 68 Trump Make America Great Again Committee 33 Restoration PAC 10 NRA Victory Fund 8 Club for Growth Action 6 Other 21 Total Republicans 601 Other parties and independents 1 Total $1,387 Source: Media spending from Kantar/CMAG. Spending for ads booked from April 9, 2020 (the date Bernie Sanders dropped out and excluding primary spending) through Election Day as of Oct. 14, 2020. Figures include TV, radio and some digital. Political media spending by market Dollars in millions. Media spending Designated market area Democrats Republicans Other Total Phoenix (Prescott, Ariz.) $130 $86 $1 $216 Atlanta 71 90 0 161 Charlotte, N.C. 94 61 1 156 Detroit 92 48 0 140 Raleigh-Durham (Fayetteville, N.C.) 61 53 1 115 Philadelphia 69 36 0 106 Los Angeles 87 14 0 101 Miami-Fort Lauderdale, Fla. 67 33 0 100 Des Moines-Ames, Iowa 60 37 0 97 New York 75 18 1 94 Other 2,539 1,448 10 3,997 Total $3,345 $1,923 $14 $5,282 Source: Media spending from Kantar/CMAG. Spending for ads booked from Jan. 1, 2019 (including primaries) through Election Day as of Oct. 14, 2020. Figures include only spending related to presidential, U.S. Senate, U.S. House and gubernatorial elections for candidates and PACs; figures include TV and radio. Social media, national network TV and cable, and statewide and regional cable and satellite spending are included in other.

How much is a U.S. Senate seat worth? That depends

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