Facebook Predicted to Take in $339M in Mobile Ad Revenue This Year
EMarketer has redone its mobile ad spending forecast and has some very good news for Facebook.
The company is now projecting that Facebook will book $339.3 million in mobile ad revenue this year, $851.4 million in 2013, and $1.22 billion in 2014.
This is a switch from the thinking that prevailed for much of this year, when most researchers and analysts had expected Facebook's mobile ad revenue to come in between $45 million and $100 million. (EMarketer's estimate from three months ago had Facebook at $75 million in mobile revenue.)
But Facebook's Q3 earnings included $153 million in mobile ad revenue -- or 14% of its total -- which surprised some observers, and caused many to re-think their assumptions.
EMarketer projects that Facebook's share of the mobile display market this year is 18.4%, ahead of Google's 17% and Pandora's 12.2%. It will pull ahead to a 25.2% share next year, while Google's hold will climb to 19.6%, according to the forecast. Meanwhile, Twitter's estimated share this year is 7.3% and expected to rise only slightly to 7.4% next year.
EMarketer's report is a substantial revision to an earlier one it issued in September, where it predicted mobile ad spending would grow 80% next year. Today's revision expects a 180% increase, attributed largely to the early success of so-called "native" ad formats like Facebook's mobile news feed ads and Twitter's promoted tweets.
EMarketer also observed Facebook delivering more ads to mobile users in recent months.
[Facebook's mobile] ad product is integrated with the core user experience, and they've been able to deliver more impressions and avoid the trap of a small screen," said Clark Fredricksen, eMarketer's VP-communications.