“For now, so much hinges on what happens with the war, NATO sanctions, military intervention and whether financial markets and Russian assets are completely frozen–and for how long,” Dunlop said.
It’s a tough situation for McDonald’s, said Ron Culp, a former corporate public relations executive who teaches at DePaul University. Exiting Russia could inflict further suffering on the average Russian citizen, many of whom are opposed to President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Many of the sanctions imposed on Russia are meant to hurt Putin and the country’s oligarchs, not the average person, Culp said.
If McDonald’s shut down stores there, it could also face a long road to recovering Russian consumers’ trust when the war is over, Culp said.
“It’s not like turning a light back on and saying, ‘We’re open,’” he said. “'You left us in a time of need,’ is what the public is going to be saying … It’s a beloved brand there with the Russian people. Getting that trust back would come at a major cost.”
Culp was in Moscow for work in January 1990, when the Soviet Union’s first McDonald’s opened in Puskinskaya Square. The scene was an unforgettable one. Photos from that day show shoulder-to-shoulder lines stretching through the square. Reports say people stood in line for six hours to try their first Big Macs, and the store served 30,000 people its first day.
Much of Moscow was drab at the time, particularly on a cold January day, but the golden arches were “literally the bright light in Pushkin Square,” Culp said. And it wasn’t just about trying a Big Mac. Months after the Iron Curtain fell, people were hungry for a taste of the West.
“It was kind of like this love affair with America, and bringing a real American brand into Russia was kind of like, ‘We’ve arrived,’” he said. “Anything that was promising and showing them what Western lifestyle could be like was part of the reason I think the people were so excited … They were very prideful of the fact that an American iconic brand came to the Soviet Union.”
“Consumers judge you by your stands and silence is interpreted as lack of support,” said Erik Gordon, professor at the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business. “If you’re silent about Ukraine, it is interpreted as you’re OK with Russia invading the country.”
McDonald’s has already suffered reputational damage, and the time to get moral brownie points and “do the right thing” in the eyes of U.S. consumers has passed, Gordon said. Any action now could appear to consumers as if McDonald’s is simply trying to prevent a loss of business from the public outcry.
Still, McDonald’s must do something, Gordon contends. Investors are already questioning McDonald’s decision to stay open in Russia. On top of that, franchisees and investors could question whether the company’s silence will start to hurt its sales back home.
“People living in their basements and dying under a hail of bombs hasn’t moved McDonald’s, so what would?” Gordon said. “I guess something that affects the bottom line is all that is left.”
Already, McDonald’s share price has dropped about 7.5% percent since Russia invaded Ukraine.
Other companies continuing operations in Russia are coming under scrutiny as well. Pepsi—McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski’s former employer—is an example.