One-time incentives cannot help China achieve long-term growth
in consumer spending. Instead of focusing narrowly on cars and
appliances, China needs to find more ways to court its 1.3 billion
residents.
Online shopping could drive the next wave of China's consumption
growth. China has 450 million internet users and one-third already
shop online regularly. From clothes to car batteries, furniture to
airplane tickets, and even meat and diamond rings, no one buys a
thing until they compare prices on Taobao.com, China's answer to
eBay.
A growing portion of Chinese online shoppers live in second- and
third-tier cities. For that reason, brands such as Lenovo, Adidas,
Uniqlo and Kappa rushed to set up virtual stores on Taobao.com to
reach consumers in lower-tier cities. Goldman Sachs predicts annual
sales could grow 275% over the next five years to an estimated $300
billion in 2015.
3. Manage China's labor force
Once a workshop to the world, China is finding it increasingly
difficult to manage its workers. They have become noticeably more
rebellious in the past few years, demanding larger portions of the
pie.
The labor issues of 2010 tested the government's "social
stability" meter, evidenced by the unanimous decision to raise the
minimum wage in ten provinces by up to 20%. Going into another year
of labor shortages in the Pearl and Yangtze River Delta regions,
wage pressures in the blue-collar sector will certainly creep
upwards. Meanwhile, the industrial map of China will be redefined,
with more factories moving inland. The results will be mixed:
higher demand for labor will push up salaries at the cost of
profits, while workers will have more to spend and thus boost
domestic consumption. In the long run the regional gap will be
reduced.
As China pushes forward with its urbanization, the
rural-to-urban flight will continue. In the next five years,
China's urban population will reach 700 million and, for the first
time in China's history, surpass the number of rural residents.
Meanwhile, the migrant workforce is expected to hit 350 million by
2050, larger than the entire U.S. population today. Such a vast
migrant labor force and the policies and directives issued by the
government to manage this group will remain pertinent. The
country's guidelines for the 12th Five Year Plan specifically said
that China will enhance its enforcement of labor laws and improve
working conditions, while bringing a healthy mechanism supported by
labor unions and enterprises into full play.
4. Reform education, environment and
healthcare
China's recent education boom parallels its status as the
world's second-largest economy. Between 1999 and 2008, the annual
enrollment of undergraduate students increased by more than 500%.
In 30 years, university enrollment went from 420,000 in 1977 to
nearly 6 million.
Critics worry that the breakneck expansion of universities in
China has negatively impacted the quality of education, made the
job market artificially more competitive and kept salaries
stagnant. Meanwhile overseas returnees, known as "sea turtles",
will face more challenges as they swim back home to a new reality.
China has grown more difficult for them to navigate. While most of
these returnees expect a lucrative job with a foreign company,
employers tend to look at them somewhat cynically.
New and more stringent efficiency measures are expected to
address environmental challenges. China is expected to introduce a
carbon tax in the near future as an incentive to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions. Also, China is willing to share more responsibility
globally. At the Cancun climate talks China offered to adopt a
binding UN resolution on carbon emissions. These events all suggest
that China is making steady progress in environmental reform.
China's rapidly aging population creates urgency around
healthcare. In 2009, Beijing unveiled an aggressive healthcare
reform plan as part of the stimulus package. The goal was to
improve people's lives, regulate the pharmaceutical industry and
spur domestic consumption (worries about healthcare bills are
believed to be a major contributor to China's high savings
rate).
We expect to see more opportunities arising from China's private
and community healthcare market. GE healthcare has already planned
a packaged solution targeting China's 70,000 community hospitals.
It includes medical equipment, services, training and financing.
The goal, according to GE, was to broaden community access to
healthcare at an affordable price.
5. Build brand China
Developing China's soft power and international reputation
continues to be a key component of China's greater integration into
the international community. But the words and actions of China's
leadership in 2010 continued to conflict, with a veritable PR train
wreck following the success of the Shanghai Expo in the first half
of the year.
International scandals over the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands, Nobel
Prize recipient and political activist Liu Xiaobo, and the handling
of a residential fire in Shanghai have given the government reason
to reexamine its methods.
In the Year of the Rabbit, we expect a resetting of
expectations, and a renewed push for soft power in several arenas,
engaging a larger host of business and government voices. Central
government support will be both in front of and behind the scenes,
sharing platforms, offering advice and backstopping the
finances.
Parallel to such branding efforts is the Chinese state media's
foray into the global market. For example, CCTV International has
45 million subscribers outside China. Last year, state-run Xinhua
News Agency launched its English-language TV service, CNC World.
Xinhua recently signed deals with outlets in Cuba, Mongolia,
Malaysia, Vietnam, Turkey, Nigeria and Zimbabwe. The moves suggest
that the benchmark of success for Chinese media going global could
be different. Instead of targeting the already-competitive North
American and European markets, Chinese media may focus on emerging
markets like Africa and South Asia.